Maple News reports that the Canadian federal election is heading into its final stretch, with the Liberal Party slightly edging ahead in what continues to be a neck-and-neck race with the Conservatives. Recent polling data suggests the Liberals are regaining momentum following last week’s official debates.
According to national tracking polls, support for the Liberal Party is currently around 31.9%, closely followed by the Conservatives at 31.7%. A separate survey conducted over the weekend shows the Liberals leading at 34%, while the Conservatives trail at 30.7%. This shift comes after two weeks where the Conservatives held a slight edge.
The debates — conducted in both French and English — appear to have been a turning point. While there is no clear public consensus on who delivered the stronger debate performance, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole is perceived to have made a marginally better impression. Nonetheless, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are gaining renewed traction.
Despite the narrow Liberal lead, projections suggest that a majority government remains unlikely. CBC’s poll tracker estimates a 56% chance the Liberals will secure another minority government. Such a result would mean limited changes to the overall makeup of Parliament, with the governing party still needing support from opposition parties to pass legislation.
Trudeau’s decision to call a snap election in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Afghanistan crisis has drawn criticism. Many viewed it as a strategic move to convert his minority into a majority — an outcome that now appears increasingly uncertain.
From an immigration policy perspective, both the Liberals and Conservatives share broadly similar goals. They agree on modernizing Canada’s immigration system, improving family reunification, streamlining credential recognition, and enhancing support for refugees. However, their methods diverge in key areas.
A major point of contrast is the Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP). The Liberals currently use a lottery system to invite applicants, aiming for fairness and transparency. In contrast, the Conservatives propose a first-come-first-served system, arguing it would be more efficient and predictable for applicants.
As Canadians prepare to cast their votes on September 20, party leaders have one final week to sway undecided voters. The outcome of this tight race remains far from certain, and the shape of Canada’s next government hangs in the balance.