Maple News reports that the first half of 2025 has marked a significant transformation in Canada’s Express Entry system. Following a federal decision to lower the overall immigration target to 395,000 permanent residents—down nearly 100,000 from 2024—Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) responded with tighter draw sizes, sustained high Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) thresholds, and a sharper focus on category-based selections.
Between January and June 2025, only 38,845 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) were issued under Express Entry, an 11% drop from the same period in 2024. The average CRS cut-off rose sharply from 481 to 617, with the highest recorded score reaching 802 in a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draw. Notably, all-program draws were entirely absent, a strong signal that IRCC is prioritizing targeted intakes aligned with labour market needs and provincial allocations.
Category-based selections accounted for nearly half of all ITAs issued, with French-language proficiency rounds leading the way (18,500 ITAs) and boasting the lowest CRS threshold of just 379. Healthcare, education, and Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates also received attention, albeit with fewer invitations and higher cut-off scores compared to 2024.
Provincial Nominee Programs saw a dramatic drop, issuing only 5,495 ITAs—down 60% from the previous year—due to lower provincial nomination caps. Provinces like Ontario and Alberta have already indicated that their 2025 allotments are likely to be used up by fall, increasing pressure on candidates to act fast or pivot to category-based strategies.
The economic backdrop further contextualizes this shift. Job vacancies dropped by 18% in Q1 2025, reducing the urgency for rapid population growth. Housing shortages also remain unresolved, influencing Ottawa’s decision to moderate immigration. However, with fewer invitations per draw, IRCC has improved its processing times, now finalizing 85% of Express Entry applications within six months.
For candidates, the message is clear: adaptability is key. Enhancing language skills—especially French—securing provincial nominations early, maintaining up-to-date documentation, and anticipating smaller, faster draws will be essential for success in the second half of 2025. Even a marginal increase in test scores or securing a job offer can significantly boost a candidate’s CRS ranking.
Looking ahead, the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, expected in November, may increase targets slightly in response to employer concerns. That said, the system is likely to continue prioritizing category-based draws tied to economic needs, French proficiency, and regional labour priorities. Candidates should plan now for a future that rewards specialization, adaptability, and alignment with Canada’s evolving workforce needs.