Maple News reports that based on patterns from recent years, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is likely to issue approximately 3,500 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) through the Express Entry system in December 2024. This estimate hinges on analysis of ITA issuance in previous years relative to Canada’s immigration targets set for the following year.
From 2021 to 2023, there was a discernible trend in the volume of ITAs issued toward the end of each year, with a lag between those invitations and actual permanent residence landings. If 2024 follows the same pattern, we can expect around 3,522 ITAs to be distributed during December alone—though this remains a projection and actual figures may vary.
ITAs represent the initial step in Canada’s permanent residency process, inviting skilled individuals to apply through the Express Entry system. However, it’s important to note that not every ITA issued results in a successful landing. Factors such as application refusals, withdrawals, or delays may reduce the number of completed immigrations.
One of the key challenges in making accurate predictions is accounting for the time lag between invitation and final landing. Generally, it can take several months—or even longer—between receiving an ITA and officially becoming a permanent resident. This delay includes processing, document gathering, and logistical planning for a move to Canada.
Instead of directly aligning ITA totals with immigration targets, IRCC focuses on meeting its broader landing goals set out in its annual Immigration Levels Plan. These targets refer to actual admissions—formally known as landings—where the immigrant becomes a permanent resident either at a port of entry or through internal processing, which can also be done electronically in some cases.
As such, December’s ITA numbers will reflect forward planning by IRCC to meet 2025 admission goals, keeping in mind application processing times and attrition rates from those invited who may not complete the immigration process.
Prospective applicants can still expect Express Entry draws in December, potentially favoring categories like Canadian Experience Class or targeted occupations under category-based selection criteria introduced this year.
Maple News will continue to provide updates as IRCC issues further guidance or changes to its immigration strategy. For now, December stands as the final chance in 2024 for candidates in the Express Entry pool to receive an ITA, securing a pathway to Canadian permanent residence in the upcoming year.