Maple News reports that while Canada has gained international attention for its surge in permanent residents, a new study suggests the country may be overlooking the economic backbone provided by temporary migrants. According to research led by economist Marc Desormeaux at Desjardins, any significant decline in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) could result in major economic setbacks, especially during periods of financial uncertainty.
Temporary residents include foreign workers, international students, and refugees—groups that have fueled growth across most provinces. Among them, foreign workers have played the most significant role, accounting for 70% of NPR population growth nationwide over the past year. This trend is particularly evident in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta—provinces that together contribute nearly 90% of Canada’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Using predictive economic modeling, the Desjardins study examined three possible future scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic, and worst-case outcomes based on varying NPR intake levels for 2023–2025. Across all four major provinces, a reduction in temporary migration could lead to a GDP drop ranging from 0.5 to almost 2 percentage points, depending on the severity of the decline.
GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, measures the total value of goods and services produced in a country and is considered a key indicator of economic health. A slowing GDP reflects reduced productivity, consumption, and overall growth—risks that become more imminent if Canada scales back its temporary resident intake.
The study reinforces the idea that temporary migration is not just a stopgap measure but a critical component of Canada’s economic engine. Foreign workers, in particular, fill key labor shortages in various sectors, while international students and refugees also contribute significantly to local economies.
With ongoing debates about immigration levels and economic strategy, Desormeaux emphasizes the importance of recognizing the full impact of temporary residents. “A sudden pullback in temporary migration could hit Canada’s economy hard,” he warned.
For Canada to maintain momentum in population growth, labor force sustainability, and economic development, experts urge policymakers to give temporary migration the strategic attention it deserves.
As Maple News continues to track developments in Canadian immigration policy, the role of temporary migrants is expected to remain a pressing issue heading into 2025.