Maple News reports that Canadians head to the polls today in what is shaping up to be one of the closest federal elections in recent memory. As voting begins, the Liberal and Conservative parties are virtually tied, leaving the outcome uncertain until mail-in ballots are counted in the days to come.
Most national polls suggest a razor-thin margin between the two leading parties, often placing them within two percentage points of one another—well within the margin of error. This statistical dead heat means that seat distribution, not just the popular vote, will determine which party forms the next government.
Despite the tight numbers, regional dynamics may give the Liberals an edge in winning more seats—similar to the 2019 election, when they formed a government despite losing the popular vote. According to election analysts, the Liberal party’s concentrated support in key urban ridings could again work in their favor.
Polling firms remain divided. AI-powered forecasts from Advanced Symbolics predict a Liberal lead, while recent data from Angus Reid suggests the Conservatives hold a slight advantage. The Liberals initially led the polls when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the election in August, but the Conservatives surged ahead shortly after. Both parties have since fluctuated, remaining locked in a tense tie throughout the final stretch of the campaign.
Because of the pandemic, a record number of mail-in ballots were requested and must undergo verification to ensure voters did not also cast ballots in person. These ballots will not be counted until Tuesday, meaning final results may not be fully known until well after Election Day.
While immigration hasn’t been a central issue in this campaign, party platforms address several policy areas crucial to newcomers and long-time residents alike—especially housing, job creation, and diversity.
On affordable housing, the Conservatives aim to build one million homes over three years and restrict foreign ownership unless the buyer commits to living in Canada. The Liberals propose a broader strategy that includes a rent-to-own program, a tax-free First Home Savings Account, and plans to build 1.4 million new homes. They also intend to double the First-Time Home Buyers Tax Credit and introduce a Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights.
When it comes to jobs and economic support, the Conservatives pledge to convert the Child Care Expense deduction into a refundable tax credit, providing up to 75% coverage for lower-income families. Additional promises include doubling the Canada Workers Benefit and expanding support for apprenticeships through a temporary increase in the Job Creation Tax Credit.
As Canadians await the final results, the close race highlights deep divisions and differing visions for the country’s future—particularly as Canada continues to navigate economic recovery and social equity in the post-pandemic era.