Maple News reports that immigration is set to play a pivotal role in driving economic growth for the Ottawa-Gatineau region, potentially contributing nearly $38 billion to the region’s GDP by 2036. This finding comes from a landmark study by the Conference Board of Canada titled “Four Futures: The Economic Impact of Immigration in the Ottawa-Gatineau Region.”
The report explores four economic scenarios from 2019 to 2036, each presenting a different level of immigration and its projected consequences. In the baseline scenario, where immigration proceeds at pre-pandemic levels, the region’s annual real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.9%, adding $34 billion to the local economy.
However, in a hypothetical “no-immigration” case, the region’s economic outlook weakens significantly. Without newcomers, annual GDP growth would slow to 1.7%, and cumulative GDP gains would be reduced to $28.5 billion — representing a loss of $5.5 billion compared to the baseline.
Under a more optimistic scenario in which immigration numbers increase from 11,000 in 2018 to 19,500 by 2036, GDP growth would rise to 2.1% annually, bringing a $37 billion boost to the local economy. In the most ambitious scenario—where both immigration increases and labor market integration improves—GDP gains could reach $37.9 billion.
Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist at the Conference Board of Canada, emphasized immigration’s vital role in post-pandemic economic recovery. “Immigration continues to be an important driver of Canada’s social and economic well-being, especially as we recover from the COVID-19 pandemic,” Antunes stated. “This is true at both the national and regional levels, including Ottawa-Gatineau.”
The report also highlights the demographic pressures facing the National Capital Region. With an aging population and a declining birth rate, the local labor force is under increasing strain. Immigration is identified as a strategic solution to replenish the workforce, sustain public services like healthcare, and bolster overall economic competitiveness.
Historically, the Ottawa-Gatineau area has attracted around 3% of all newcomers to Canada each year. According to the Conference Board, maintaining and ideally increasing this share is crucial for economic resilience—particularly in a post-COVID landscape.
As Canada looks to rebuild and strengthen its economy, targeted immigration policies that enhance both intake levels and newcomer integration will be essential. The Ottawa-Gatineau region, with its growing need for skilled labor and innovative talent, stands as a compelling case study for how immigration can directly fuel prosperity.