Maple News reports that multiple public colleges in Ontario are facing significant financial strain due to a steep drop in international student enrolment, triggered by Canada’s 2024 federal cap on study permits and sweeping changes to post-graduation work eligibility rules.
Loyalist College in Belleville and Northern College in Timmins are among the hardest hit. According to government-commissioned reports by Deloitte and KPMG, Loyalist could see revenue fall by up to 60% between 2025 and 2030. Northern College, meanwhile, may face a 35% revenue decline during the same period. These projections underscore the sector’s heavy reliance on international student tuition amid stagnating domestic funding and a tuition freeze that’s been in place since 2019.
The federal changes, aimed at controlling population growth and alleviating housing pressures, have severely reduced the number of study permits issued. In the first half of 2025 alone, approvals fell by 70%, with Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) issuing 90,000 fewer study permits compared to the previous year. Compounding the issue, non-degree business programs—some of the most popular with international students—are now excluded from the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program, further disincentivizing applications.
Financial forecasts paint a bleak picture. Deloitte estimates that even with staff and program cuts, Loyalist College will still face a $30 million deficit by 2030. Northern College could transition from an $8 million surplus in 2025 to an $8 million deficit by 2030 without significant restructuring. Recommendations include cutting programs with high international enrolment, reducing staff, and leasing out underused facilities. Northern College may lease or close its Kirkland Lake and Moosonee campuses to save more than $1 million in annual costs.
Both colleges have already begun to cancel dozens of programs, especially those now ineligible for PGWPs. Before the changes, international students made up 60% of Northern College’s student body and up to 84% of enrolment in Loyalist’s business programs. These cuts are affecting faculty and staff province-wide. The Ontario Public Service Employees Union (OPSEU) warns that almost 10,000 jobs have been or will be lost. Labour unrest is rising, with mass layoffs driving support staff to strike in September 2025, demanding job protections and a freeze on further cuts.
The crisis goes beyond Loyalist and Northern. At least 14 Ontario colleges, including Durham, Fanshawe, and Sault, are undergoing financial reviews under a provincial initiative to identify long-term cost-saving measures. These institutions—many of which ramped up international enrolment in recent years—are now being forced to scale back or reorganize operations.
Northern College alone generated nearly $30 million in international tuition revenue during the 2023–24 academic year. That figure is projected to drop to just $8.6 million by 2027–28. Experts like Alex Usher of Higher Education Strategy Associates caution that many colleges expanded too rapidly based on international income, leaving them financially vulnerable when that stream declined. “Eventually, they will get back to the point where they do not have enough money to do the job the government has given to them,” Usher said.
The situation has ignited urgent conversations about how Ontario’s post-secondary institutions can create sustainable financial models without an overreliance on international tuition—a topic that promises to shape the future of higher education policies in the province.