Maple News reports a significant rise in immigration refusal rates across nearly all categories in Canada, with the most pronounced increases observed in temporary resident programs. The uptick, driven by tighter eligibility rules, policy reforms, and increased scrutiny, reflects a new phase in Canada’s attempt to balance immigration with broader economic and population goals.
According to newly published federal data, refusal rates between 2023 and 2025 have surged not only for temporary residents but also across all permanent resident categories. Notably, study permits now face a rejection rate of 65.4%, a steep increase from 40.5% in 2023. Spousal open work permits and visitor visas have followed similar trends, with rejection rates rising to 52.3% and 50% respectively.
Ottawa has introduced several significant policy changes since 2023, including a 10% reduction in study permit approvals for 2025 and stricter requirements for Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) eligibility. New language benchmarks now apply to PGWP applicants, while rules for spousal open work permits have become more restrictive. These measures are designed to curb temporary resident inflows, particularly in the wake of ballooning application volumes and constrained departmental resources.
Permanent resident categories haven’t been spared either. Data from the first five months of 2025 shows increased refusals across the board: family class (12.6%, up from 8.4% in 2024), economic class (6.7%), refugees with protected status (16.5%), and humanitarian and compassionate cases (40.4%). Analysts suggest that systemic delays, tightened eligibility, and applicants resorting to less secure pathways may be contributing factors.
Despite a reduction in immigration staffing—3,300 roles were cut—and lower intake caps under the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, backlogs persist. As of June 30, 2025, over 2.18 million applications were in process, with 842,800 delayed beyond service standards. The workload on immigration officers remains intense, raising concerns about rushed decisions and inconsistent outcomes.
Yet, Canada remains a top destination for international students. A 2025 survey found that 94% of global student respondents are still interested in studying in Canada, citing factors like educational quality and post-study options. However, affordability is a growing issue: 77% view tuition costs as a critical factor in their decision-making.
In response to calls for transparency, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) now includes officers’ notes in refusal letters, helping applicants understand the reasons for denial. The department affirms that decisions are made by human officers—AI tools may assist but do not determine outcomes or issue rejections.
As Canada reshapes its immigration landscape, sectors such as healthcare, skilled trades, and education remain high priorities for temporary work programs. Applicants are encouraged to ensure their submissions are fully documented and aligned with the latest criteria to improve their chances in an increasingly competitive environment.
Looking ahead, Canada will continue attempting to strike a delicate balance: managing immigration to support economic growth while maintaining control over population increases and service delivery.