A major new study released by Statistics Canada and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada provides fresh insight into the relationship between immigration and housing prices—an issue often at the centre of public debate. According to Maple News, while immigration does play a role in the rising cost of housing, it is far from the primary driver behind Canada’s affordability crisis.
The study analyzed census data from over 5,800 municipalities between 2006 and 2021, focusing on new immigrants—those who arrived within the prior five years. It found that a 1% increase in new immigrants correlated with a 0.143% rise in median house prices and a 0.045% increase in median rents. Nationally, immigration contributed to approximately 11% of the increase in housing costs over the 15-year period.
However, the impact varied sharply by location. In Canada’s 53 largest cities, where over 80% of newcomers settled, the effect was significantly stronger. There, the same 1% increase in immigration was linked with a 0.419% jump in home values, accounting for up to 21% of housing price growth in those areas. Rent increases were also more pronounced but were moderated in part by rent control measures.
Interestingly, the connection was not consistent across all time periods. From 2011 to 2016, when immigration rates dipped in some regions, housing prices still surged—particularly in Ontario—suggesting that other forces were at play. By contrast, the 2006–2011 and 2016–2021 periods showed a clearer positive link between immigration and rising prices in regions such as the Prairies, Ontario, and B.C.
The report emphasized that immigration interacts with other powerful variables. Rising household incomes, a growing young adult population, and local housing supply fluctuations all significantly influenced price dynamics. In some areas, population aging had the opposite effect, reducing housing demand and softening price pressures.
What sets this study apart from previous research is its advanced methodology, which accounts for regional variations and time-based changes in the same communities. This approach offers a more accurate picture, avoiding the pitfalls of earlier analyses that often overlooked key economic factors or failed to distinguish correlation from causation.
The data also challenges the simplified narrative that immigration directly causes price hikes. As Maple News highlights, immigrants often move to economically vibrant areas where housing prices are already climbing. As such, immigration is both a cause and a consequence of broader economic momentum.
From a policy standpoint, the findings call for more than just capping immigration levels. Instead, coordinated efforts are needed to bolster housing supply, reform zoning policies, support infrastructure development, and design regional immigration programs that balance demographic needs across the country.
Ultimately, immigration is part of the housing equation—but not the whole story. As this in-depth analysis demonstrates, addressing Canada’s housing challenges requires a comprehensive, data-informed approach that reflects the complex interplay of demographics, economics, and public policy.