Maple News reports that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) expects a major decline in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) over the next three years, as Canada takes steps to manage temporary immigration levels more sustainably.
According to the 2024 Annual Report on Immigration, IRCC anticipates that approximately 588,000 NPRs—work permit holders, international students, asylum seekers, and their dependents—will either leave the country or transition to permanent resident (PR) status by the end of this year. Despite these outflows, the overall number of NPRs is expected to grow by nearly 299,000 by year-end, reaching an estimated total of 2.9 million individuals, or 7.1% of Canada’s population.
Starting in 2025, IRCC plans a gradual yet significant reduction in NPR numbers. The government estimates that 1.26 million temporary residents will exit or transition in 2025, with continued outflows of 1.1 million in 2026 and 875,000 in 2027. By the end of 2026, the NPR population is projected to decline to 5% of Canada’s population—approximately 2.07 million individuals.
These projections reflect a broader policy shift aimed at managing Canada’s temporary immigration system more deliberately. With a growing dependence on international talent and study permit holders, the government is seeking to balance economic needs with housing, infrastructure, and service capacity.
Interestingly, while exit projections are high, the inflow of new temporary residents will remain significant. IRCC forecasts nearly 888,000 new NPRs will arrive in 2024. However, net changes will begin to decline with negative growth expected in 2025 (-445,901) and 2026 (-445,622), before stabilizing slightly in 2027 with a marginal increase of 17,439 NPRs.
By 2027, the total NPR population is forecasted to sit at just over 2 million, aligning with the federal government’s broader strategy to limit NPRs to around 5% of the total population. These numbers are subject to change, with final targets for each year confirmed only on November 1 of the previous year.
This realignment indicates Canada’s intent to maintain a controlled and purposeful immigration strategy that supports long-term economic stability and social integration, particularly by prioritizing transitions from temporary to permanent status over prolonged temporary stays.
Maple News will continue to track how these projections influence real-time immigration policy and its implications for newcomers across work, study, and humanitarian categories.