Maple News reports that the 2021 Canadian federal election remains a dead heat, with the Liberal and Conservative parties virtually tied just days before voters head to the polls on September 20. With millions having already cast their ballots during the advance voting period, Canadians are facing one of the most competitive political races in recent years.
According to national polling averages, no party holds a clear lead. The CBC Poll Tracker places the Liberals slightly ahead at 31.7%, closely followed by the Conservatives at 31.2%. Nanos Research also shows a marginal Liberal advantage at 31.9% versus 30.3% for the Conservatives, within the margin of error. Other polls, like Angus Reid and EKOS, show either a Conservative edge or an exact tie, emphasizing the statistical closeness of the race.
Regional dynamics continue to play a pivotal role. The Conservatives are leading in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, while the Liberals maintain strongholds in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. In British Columbia, the New Democratic Party (NDP) sees higher support, potentially impacting seat distribution in that region.
Despite fluctuations earlier in the campaign — with the Conservatives briefly pulling ahead and the Liberals later recovering — most indicators now suggest that a minority government, particularly a Liberal minority, is the most probable outcome. This would mirror the results of the previous 2019 election and mean the leading party must collaborate with smaller parties to pass legislation.
Both frontrunners — the Liberal and Conservative parties — have pledged to increase immigration levels and reduce processing backlogs. The Liberals recommitted to eliminating citizenship application fees and tackling systemic racism through community funding and inclusivity programs. Meanwhile, the Conservatives aim to overhaul the Parents and Grandparents Program by moving to a first-come, first-served application model and propose replacing the Government-Assisted Refugee Program with private-public partnerships.
More than 5.7 million Canadians have already voted during the four-day advance polling period, representing an 18% increase compared to the 2019 election. With voter turnout already high, this election’s outcome could be shaped largely by regional performances and final-day momentum.
As Canada prepares for election day, all eyes remain on whether the current political deadlock will be broken — or if the next Parliament will once again face the complex realities of a minority government.
Stay tuned with Maple News for real-time updates on Canada’s election and what the outcome means for immigration policy.