Maple News reports that new data from Statistics Canada reveals a notable shift in where immigrants are choosing to settle long-term, with Atlantic Canada seeing improved retention rates while the prairie provinces are witnessing declines.
The 2022 Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) examined provincial retention rates by analyzing the percentage of immigrant tax filers still residing in their intended province one and five years after their arrival. The findings show that more newcomers are staying in Atlantic provinces such as Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island (PEI), and Newfoundland and Labrador.
In particular, New Brunswick reached its highest five-year immigrant retention rate at 56% for those who arrived in 2016. PEI, while still recording the lowest retention rate nationally at 30.9%, showed improvement — marking a rise of nearly 6% compared to those who landed in 2012.
In contrast, retention rates in Saskatchewan and Manitoba declined significantly for the same five-year period. Saskatchewan’s retention rate for newcomers fell from 72.2% to 57.9%, a 14 percentage point decline, while Manitoba saw a drop from 75.1% to 64.1%.
One-year retention rates mirrored this downward trend. In Saskatchewan, the rate fell from 75.7% in 2016 to just 64.6% in 2020, while Manitoba’s slipped from 78.4% to 74.9% over the same time span.
Despite these regional disparities, Ontario continues to lead the country in immigrant retention. It recorded a five-year retention rate of 93.1% for immigrants who arrived in 2016, followed closely by British Columbia and Alberta, both maintaining retention levels above 84%.
The variations in retention across provinces could be influenced by several factors, including employment opportunities, access to settlement services, housing affordability, and community support for newcomers. The growing success in Atlantic Canada may reflect targeted provincial immigration programs like the Atlantic Immigration Program, which is designed to attract and retain skilled talent in the region.
As immigration continues to shape Canada’s demographic and economic future, these shifting patterns highlight the importance of regional strategies to support newcomer integration and long-term settlement.