Maple News reports that immigration will be a major force driving economic resilience and long-term prosperity in Ontario and Quebec, as the provinces continue to recover from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
A recent economic analysis reveals that if Canada reaches its new immigration targets, Ontario could see its economy grow by up to $2.9 billion, while Quebec may add nearly $1 billion. The economic contribution of newcomers is expected to increase significantly over the next five years, shaping nearly half of all provincial growth beyond 2022.
“Immigration isn’t a cure-all, but its economic benefits are clear and significant—even after accounting for historical disparities in employment outcomes,” said Marc Desormeaux, the economist behind the study. Notably, if immigrants and Canadian-born workers had equal participation in the labor market, Ontario alone could see an additional boost of between $12 and $20 billion.
While skepticism remains regarding increased immigration during times of economic uncertainty, the report points out that newcomers’ labor market performance, especially in Ontario and Quebec, was improving before the pandemic. More importantly, without sustained immigration, Ontario’s GDP would shrink by an estimated 20%—a loss of around $157 billion.
The analysis acknowledges that immigrants historically face higher unemployment, particularly in Quebec. However, over time, these gaps narrow as immigrants gain more work experience in Canada. Continued efforts to close these disparities are vital and will require coordination between policymakers and the business community.
The report urges targeted immigration and labor strategies, especially in light of sector-specific challenges brought on by the pandemic. For instance, while health care continues to face worker shortages, retail could experience a surge from post-pandemic consumer demand. Policymakers must adjust immigration strategies accordingly to ensure new arrivals are connected to sectors most in need.
“Canada’s immigration success is well-documented,” said Desormeaux. “With the right supports in place, newcomers can again be a critical engine for recovery and future growth.”
Ultimately, Maple News concludes that a proactive immigration policy, coupled with strong labor market integration, could position Ontario and Quebec not only to recover more quickly from the pandemic but also to lead Canada’s next wave of economic expansion.