Maple News reports new insights from a Statistics Canada study that explore the evolving dynamics between domestic and international student enrolment in Canadian post-secondary institutions. Despite a striking rise in international student numbers—from 142,200 in 2010 to over 800,000 in 2022—the impact on domestic enrolment appears more nuanced than previously assumed.
According to the study, conducted by researchers Youjin Choi and Feng Hou, the influx of international students over the past decade has not reduced the number of Canadian students pursuing higher education. Rather, at the institutional level and across all fields of study, there’s no evidence of international students displacing domestic ones. In fact, in certain academic programs, there’s a positive relationship between the two groups.
Specifically, the study found that enrolment in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) and BHASE (Business, Humanities, Arts, Social Sciences, and Education) programs saw a parallel rise among both international and Canadian students. This trend was strongest in non-tertiary and short-cycle tertiary programs—training pathways between high school and a full bachelor’s degree.
Notably, the correlation continued in BHASE programs at the graduate level, though no significant link was observed among graduate-level STEM students. These findings challenge the assumption that international enrolment drives out domestic participation and instead point to a possible synergistic trend in educational demand.
One hypothesis offered by the researchers is that of cross-subsidization. Given that international students often pay significantly higher tuition—nearly double that of their domestic peers—their fees may help offset institutional costs and support resources that benefit all students. Between 2010 and 2019, international undergraduate tuition rose 90.2% while domestic fees grew by only 27%, far exceeding inflation during that period.
Demographics also played a key role. A declining population of 18- to 24-year-olds during the 2010s limited domestic enrolment capacity, creating opportunity for international students to fill in the gap. Reduced provincial funding for postsecondary education may have further incentivized institutions to attract more international students as a revenue source.
Looking ahead, demographic trends are shifting. The population of college-age Canadians has already begun to grow again and is expected to climb steadily through 2026. This may lead to increased future domestic demand, potentially reshaping enrolment patterns and necessitating a recalibration between domestic and international student planning.
While the study’s scope is limited to historical trends and doesn’t forecast future outcomes, it provides valuable context for postsecondary policy planning in Canada and demonstrates that international education expansion can coexist—and even thrive—alongside domestic student success.