Maple News reports that although Canada has set record-high immigration targets, experts say the country may soon need to welcome even more newcomers to support its economy and population. On November 1, the Canadian government reaffirmed its previous commitment to admitting 500,000 immigrants annually in both 2025 and 2026. While these figures are unprecedented, analysts warn that they may not be sufficient in the long term.
According to a recent report from the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), current immigration levels fall short of addressing Canada’s underlying demographic challenges. With one of the oldest populations in the developed world and a low fertility rate of 1.4 births per woman, the country is unable to naturally replenish its population. This demographic pressure directly affects the labour force, posing risks to economic growth and the sustainability of social programs such as healthcare and pensions.
RBC’s report suggests Canada would need to admit approximately 2.1% of its population annually—equating to nearly 850,000 newcomers—to maintain population stability and meet labour market needs. With current targets representing only 1.3% of the population, this implies a shortfall of more than 300,000 immigrants per year.
A similar conclusion was drawn by a 2023 Desjardins study, which examined immigration in the context of labour force and healthcare sustainability. It found that to maintain today’s working-age to retiree ratio, Canada would need annual working-age population growth of 2.2%, or about 721,600 newcomers. To preserve historical labour ratios, that figure would rise dramatically to 4.5%, or nearly 1.5 million immigrants annually.
These studies underline immigration’s critical role in supporting economic growth, cushioning the effects of population aging, and sustaining vital public services. While the government’s 2024–2026 Immigration Levels Plan marks a significant commitment, analysts indicate it may only be a holding pattern before further expansions are required.
A key insight from the Desjardins study is that future increases in immigration may need to be more targeted—particularly focused on working-age individuals who can help meet immediate labour market needs and long-term economic dependencies. This has implications for policymaking not only in quantity but also in the composition of immigrant intake.
Canada’s economy—currently the ninth largest in the world by GDP—continues to rely on newcomers to fill job vacancies, support new business growth, and contribute to tax revenues. As more retirements loom and fertility trends continue downward, immigration will likely remain a cornerstone of Canada’s economic and social strategy.
With projections showing Canada will need to expand its immigration targets beyond current record-setting levels, policymakers may face increasing pressure to once again raise the ceiling on permanent resident admissions before 2026.